Clinton nearly lost Indiana because she nearly lost women.

Jerome, quite rightly, mentioned on the front page that Obama over-performed among many groups in Indiana, including liberals, white voters, and white democrats.  However, he misses the most obvious shift, Clinton's dramatic drop in support among women.  

Let's compare Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana, three states which are similar in overall demographics.  

First, the female percentage of the electorate shrunk.  In Ohio women made up 59% of voters, and in Pennsylvania 58%, but only 56% in Indiana.  While Indiana being an open primary means that independents (who tend to be men) had high turnout and probably shifted the demographics considerably, but it doesn't explain the difference with Ohio.  With a slightly higher turnout, Clinton could have won by a larger margin.

Next, let's look at Hillary's margin over Obama among women:

Ohio: Hillary - 57% of the female vote to Obama's 41% - a 16% gap
Pennsylvania: Hillary - 59%, Obama 41% - an 18% gap
Indiana: Hillary - 51% - Obama - 49% - a 2% gap!

In contrast the male vote was essentially constant, with Hillary winning men by 2% in Ohio, and Obama winning men by 2% in Pennsylvania and Indiana.  

The gender gap in Hillary's support (her female support minus male support) was 7% in Ohio, 10% in PA, but only 2% in Indiana.  

Could black female turnout have made a difference?  Not much.  Black women made up 11% of the OH electorate, 8% of the PA electorate, and 10% of the IN electorate.  In all three states, black women voted for Obama by essentially the same amount.

Instead, it was the closing of the white female vote which denied Clinton a wide victory.

Ohio: Clinton 67%, Obama 31% - 36% gap
Pennsylvania: Clinton 68%, Obama 32% - 34% gap
Indiana: Clinton 60% - Obama 40% - 20% gap

As with men at large, white men didn't really change much.  They supported Clinton by a 19% margin in Ohio, a 14% margin in Pennsylvania, and a 14% margin in Indiana.

Somehow, in the closing days of her campaign in the state, Clinton managed to squander a goodly portion of the gender gap which has won her state after state.  Without this slippage, Obama would have only marginally improved over PA, given the higher male and slightly higher African-American turnout.  



Display:


Re: Clinton nearly lost Indiana because she nearly (none / 0)

Very probing data you gotten there.


Obama/Warner 2008
by MissVA on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:37:59 AM EST

Could you please post the link to the gender poll (none / 0)

data? Thanks.


by louisprandtl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:42:11 AM EST

My souce... (2.00 / 1)

Was the CNN exits.

OH
PA
IN


by telephasic on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:46:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks for the link..much appreciated. (none / 0)


by louisprandtl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:58:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton nearly lost Indiana because she nearly (none / 0)

That's interesting.

What I always hated was the "why can't he close the deal?" argument.  It ignored women - especially older women who weren't, and aren't, going to stop voting for Hillary Clinton as long as she was in the race.  Both candidates have their bases who are absolutely thrilled and aren't going to easily rally behind the front-runner.


by Mostly on Wed May 07, 2008 at 12:01:29 PM EST

Obama should have won Indiana (2.00 / 1)

By all accounts, including his own, BO should have won Indiana.  25% of that electorate is in his hometown media market.  If HRC's "loss" of white women is based on Indiana results, it's skewed, because that's a state Obama should have won handidly.  IN is distinguished from Penn and Ohio because of the hometown advantages BO had there.  It's not rocket science.  the media wants to spin the Indiana result as a bad one for HRC, but it stunk for Obama.  She came from behind to win Indiana.  he lost ground there.  His own campaign predicted a 7 point win there in Feb.  what happened?


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Wed May 07, 2008 at 12:13:18 PM EST

Re: Obama should have won Indiana (none / 0)

so what did you predict for the Indiana results?

are you telling me you were predicting Obama by 7? ofcourse not, the expectations shifted, Hillary was predicted at 7-10 points, she didn't hit it.

but sure, West Virgina will be the game changer


Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."
by TruthMatters on Wed May 07, 2008 at 12:23:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama should have won Indiana (2.00 / 1)

Indiana is the only state neighboring Illinois that Obama has lost.  he even spent $300k in the Chicago media market on the last day.  Why couldn't he pull out a win there?


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Wed May 07, 2008 at 12:27:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Why? (none / 0)

That's my question.

Why would white women in IN vote so differently than all other white women in the past?

Did she come on too strong as the "macho" male of the party?

I hope someone investigates this because it simply doesn't fit the other exit polls in all the other primaries.....


by nikkid on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:54:04 PM EST


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